Tech companies must calculate threat of losing control of super AI
12/05/2025 | The Guardian
Artificial intelligence (AI) safety expert, Max Tegmark, has called on developers of these technologies to emulate the safety calculations conducted by physicist Arthur Compton ahead of Robert Oppenheimer's pioneering Trinity nuclear test before deploying highly advanced AI systems. The US government proceeded with the Trinity test in 1945 after being assured of an extremely low chance of the atomic bomb igniting the atmosphere and endangering humanity.
Tegmark said that calculations he carried out that were of a similar nature to those prior to the Trinity test determined a 90% probability that a highly advanced AI would present an existential risk. In a paper co-authored with three of his students at MIT, Tegmark suggests calculating the "Compton constant," which the paper defines as the probability of an all-powerful AI escaping human control.
Tegmark has called for AI companies to take responsibility for rigorously calculating the likelihood of Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)—a theoretical system surpassing human intelligence in all aspects—evading human control. He stressed that simply feeling confident about safety is insufficient; companies must calculate the percentage probability of losing control.
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